Iran

NEW YORK : Global oil prices broke above $100 a barrel on September 9 for the first time since July as the United States and Iran exchanged a new wave of military strikes, escalating concerns over supply disruptions from the Middle East. Brent crude futures for November delivery reached $101.18 a barrel during trading, a 3.3 percent increase on the day, after briefly crossing the threshold earlier in the session. West Texas Intermediate crude also rose above $95 a barrel. The surge marks a more than 25 percent gain since the beginning of August . The renewed price rally followed a series of attacks and counterattacks. The U.S. Central Command reported that American forces destroyed five Iranian oil vessels, including four in the Gulf of Oman and one near Kharg Island. The strikes were carried out in response to what the U.S. described as Iranian attacks on American naval vessels . Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps confirmed it retaliated, claiming to have struck two U.S. warships and multiple oil tankers, and launched ballistic missiles at the U.S. Al-Asrak Air Base in Jordan . U.S. officials denied that any warships were successfully hit. The Iranian military also announced it would establish a new maritime 'sanctions zone' extending from Chabahar Port into the Gulf of Oman and parts of the Arabian Sea, where it warned it would withhold services from any vessels passing without coordination . Rystad Energy’s head of geopolitical analysis, Jorge León, stated that oil transit through the strait has fallen dramatically, from an average of about 8 million barrels per day in the last week of August to roughly 1 million barrels per day this week. Shipping data from Kpler showed only four commodity vessels transited the strait on September 1, significantly below the 10-day average of approximately 13 . The hostilities in the Gulf are compounded by attacks elsewhere. The Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen launched a large-scale missile and drone assault on Saudi military and energy facilities on September 8, which the Saudi Energy Ministry confirmed caused some temporary operational disruptions . This has added to the strain on global energy infrastructure and contributed to market jitters . Analysts have responded to the heightened geopolitical risk with mixed forecasts. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and WTI forecasts by $5 to $85 and $80, respectively, for December 2026, assuming disruptions continue. In a higher-risk scenario, the bank warned that Brent could exceed $120 a barrel if Gulf output remains significantly curtailed. UBS energy specialist Dominic Ellis said the U.S.-Iran 'off ramp remains elusive,' a view that is framing the current market sentiment . The sustained high prices have reignited fears of a fresh inflationary shock, just as major central banks are preparing key interest rate decisions. The market structure is also showing signs of stress, with traders reportedly concentrating their activity on short-term contracts due to the extreme uncertainty, leading to a further reduction in liquidity for longer-dated futures. As of the latest reports, futures markets indicate that Brent crude is unlikely to return to pre-war price levels until March 2029 .

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